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JP Morgan CEO Doubles Down on Recession Prediction: "This Is Serious"

JP Morgan CEO Doubles Down on Recession Prediction: "This Is Serious"

After previously predicting "something worse" than a recession in the United States, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has doubled down on this prediction, telling investors, "This is serious."

Dimon, who took over his current post in 2005, originally spoke of his concerns on an investor call in August. At the time, Business Insider shared:

Dimon reportedly said on a client call Tuesday that the economy was "strong" but "storm clouds" were on the horizon, including federal monetary policies, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and rising oil prices. The categorization is an apparent downgrade from Dimon's previous comments in June when he warned of an "economic hurricane."

The CEO then reportedly stated that the probability of a "soft landing" are, in his estimation, about 10% and the probability of a "harder landing" or "mild recession" are between 20% and 30%, per JP Morgan's projections.

Dimon also estimated that the likelihood of a "harder recession" or "something worse" also ranges from 20% to 30%.

Now, the executive has expressed continued concerns. 

CNBC's Juliana Tatelbaum spoke to Dimon this week at the JPM Techstars conference in London. He told her, “But you can’t talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future — and this is serious stuff."

Dimon stated fears about rampant inflation and energy costs around the world. “These are very, very serious things," he said, "which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now."

Shell CEO Ben van Beurden also recently weighed in on Europe's energy crisis, noting that he believes raising taxes on energy giants may be the answer. 

Speaking at the the Energy Intelligence Forum last week, van Beurden said, “One way or another there needs to be government intervention. Protecting the poorest, that probably may then mean that governments need to tax people in this room to pay for it.”

One possible solution that has been discussed by European Union ministers is a cap on the price of natural gas to assist consumers, especially those who have low incomes. 

Per Bloomberg, Shell's Chief Executive Officer criticized this approach in his comments today, however. The executive indicated that large corporations like Shell and its competitors would struggle to send additional natural gas shipments to Europe without a price incentive.

He said, “We will do our best to bring gas to Europe where it’s needed, but if the market signal is not there it’s going to be really challenging."

There are serious concerns about the death toll that could come from the energy crisis throughout Europe this year. A 2014 report about cold weather related deaths across the continent stated that about 200,000 such deaths occur annually, with the mortality rate increasing approximately 1.5% for every 1-degree Celsius decrease. 

Van Beurden did not specifically address the state of the American economy, but it is clear that both he and Dimon agree that things are not likely to take a turn for the better in the immediate future. 

What do you think? Is America about to enter a recession? If you need help preparing, match with a personal finance expert near you now.

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Rebekah Barton

Rebekah Barton

Rebekah's search engine optimization career began completely by accident as a college student. Over the course of her career so far, she has "grown up" with the SEO industry, from writing content while juggling classes to managing her own teams of writers and overseeing SEO strategy in subsequent roles. She is excited to bring her passion for high-quality content to CountingWorks, Inc.

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