Tax & Accounting News

How Many People Are Expecting a Tax Refund in 2020?

2/19/2020

Note: The tax filing and payment deadline for 2019 tax returns has been delayed from April 15, 2020 to July 15, 2020.

The IRS just opened up for income tax filing for the 2019 tax year. However, the average American taxpayer is less likely to feel as optimistic about tax filing compared with recent years.

Last year, many taxpayers who ordinarily received tax refunds wound up being blindsided by owing taxes. This was in large part due to the biggest tax reform in over 30 years, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2018 (TCJA, or 2018 tax reform) which materially changed several key provisions of the Internal Revenue Code. With an abrupt announcement at the end of 2017 that the law was signed, the 2018 tax filing season taking place in 2019 was the first one after the tax reform had gone into effect.

Results of the 2018 Tax Season

People still received tax refunds, although the average refund last year was $2,725, down 2% from the prior year. On a larger scale, the Treasury disbursed $290.6 billion in tax refunds, $5 billion less than in 2018 for the 2017 tax year.

In addition to the IRS having to update the tax tables at the last minute, which led to millions of people having taxes over- or under-withheld throughout 2018, several formidable deductions were also eliminated or capped. The standard deduction was doubled in favor of eliminating personal exemptions, which curtailed the number of people who itemized on their taxes.

Taxpayers living in states with high cost of living like New York and California had their ability to deduct real estate taxes and state income taxes completely kneecapped, which also contributed to owing taxes or seeing a far smaller refund than they were used to. It's no surprise that when NerdWallet surveyed people filing 2019 tax returns, only 51% are expecting a tax refund at all compared with 86% in the prior year.

The elimination of employee business expenses is another itemized deduction that hit traveling salespeople, construction workers, makeup artists, and other employees who have several expenses that are necessary for work but that their employers do not cover. However, many self-employed people gained a new deduction, the Qualified Business Income (QBI) deduction. This has additional restrictions, but provided that your total taxable income is under $157,000 ($315,000 if married and filing jointly), then you should still benefit.

Since most self-employed generally don't expect tax refunds due to the lack of automatic withholding that employees receive — as well as having to pay often-onerous self-employment tax — they tend not to participate in tax refund anticipation surveys and culture.

The same NerdWallet survey says that 24% of taxpayers owed money related to their 2018 tax returns, and 5% hadn't made any payments on this amount yet.

Is It Actually Good News If Your Tax Refund Gets Smaller?

Ultimately, having less in taxes withheld contributed to people seeing their tax refunds shrink.

Tax preparation firm Jackson Hewitt ran their own survey and found that 61% of respondents expect a tax refund, which is significantly higher than NerdWallet's findings. This may be indicative of the typical income level seen in NerdWallet readers versus the average Jackson Hewitt client, who is likely to expect a refund due to the Earned Income Tax Credit and other refundable credits for low- and moderate-income earners. However, the survey brings up another point in the expectations of getting a tax refund.

It's a cornerstone of American culture to talk about what you'll spend your tax refund on or express your woes for owing taxes. But in encouraging this mindset, it's actually costing you.

If you're used to receiving a large tax refund and do not receive subsidies like the Earned Income Tax Credit, chances are that you've been over-withholding. You might be scared of the IRS and think it's a good idea to over-withhold, but all you're doing is giving them an interest-free loan. If you need more money for bills or just want to get an actual rate of return instead of having that money sit in the Treasury, now is a good time to adjust your withholding. Many people had less money withheld after the 2018 tax tables were issued, but you may want to address this now.

Prepare in Advance to Avoid Nasty Surprises at Tax-Filing Time

It's important to see a tax professional in advance to discuss the matters that affect you individually. Major life changes like moving, getting married, having children, starting a business or going freelance will materially affect your taxes, but so will year-to-year tax law changes. Sweeping reforms like the TCJA only magnify this point.

Tax professionals stay up to date on tax law changes so you don't have to and can give you necessary guidance for how to manage your taxes and plan accordingly. Self-employed people often face more volatility than employees, and thus need to speak to tax professionals more often during income fluctuations or making major investments. However, job changes or other life events can also disrupt your current tax savings strategy.

Addressing your tax withholding is also imperative. If you are not having enough withheld and want to avoid owing money, you should submit a new W-4 form to your employer dictating that they use fewer allowances. If 0 allowances are not enough, you can also have an additional set dollar amount withheld. Don't forget the state equivalent of the W-4 as well when doing this, if you live in a state with income tax. It is often overlooked but state tax bills can easily sneak up on you.

As tax season continues, make sure to work with a tax professional in order to ensure you end up with your minimum tax liability.

Spencer Wilson writes for TaxBuzz, a tax news and advice website. Reach him at [email protected].

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Spencer Wilson

Spencer Wilson, EA is a tax preparer based in Long Beach, CA. Spencer Wilson Financial Management Services has been serving the Greater Los Angeles Area and Orange County since 2004. <br /> We began in the heart of Naples in Long Beach and we continue to work hard offering tax preparation and planning, business accounting and bookkeeping and payroll services . <br /> We have helped many different people and businesses succeed financially and take control over their finances.

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Liability Limitation and Usage Guidelines for TaxBuzz AI:
Limitation of Liability:

TaxBuzz AI is a tool designed to provide tax professionals with assistance in generating responses to tax research questions. While we strive to maintain the accuracy and reliability of the information provided, it is imperative to recognize that tax laws are dynamic and subject to change. Therefore, the use of TaxBuzz AI should be complemented by professional judgment and consultation with legal and tax experts.

By utilizing TaxBuzz AI, you acknowledge and agree that the information generated should not be considered as a substitute for professional advice tailored to your specific circumstances. We explicitly disclaim any liability for the consequences arising from the use of advice generated by TaxBuzz AI. Users are encouraged to independently verify the information and seek professional advice before making decisions based on the AI-generated responses.

Usage Guidelines:
- Professional Judgment: TaxBuzz AI is a tool to aid tax professionals in research and analysis. It is not a replacement for professional judgment, and users should exercise their expertise when interpreting and applying the information generated.
- Consultation with Experts: While TaxBuzz AI provides valuable insights, it is crucial to consult with legal and tax experts to ensure the advice aligns with the latest legal developments and specific nuances of a particular situation.
- Verification of Information: Users are responsible for independently verifying the information provided by TaxBuzz AI, especially in instances where the advice generated is critical to decision-making.
- Educational Purposes: TaxBuzz AI is intended for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended to provide specific legal or tax advice tailored to individual circumstances.
- Non-Endorsement: The use of TaxBuzz AI does not constitute an endorsement or guarantee of the accuracy of the information provided. Users are encouraged to corroborate the advice with other reliable sources.
By accessing and using TaxBuzz AI, you agree to abide by these terms and acknowledge the limitations outlined herein. We reserve the right to modify these terms at any time, and your continued use of TaxBuzz AI constitutes acceptance of any such modifications. If you do not agree with these terms, please refrain from using TaxBuzz AI.

TaxBuzz.com is a service of CountingWorks, Inc., 2549 Eastbuff Drive., #448 208, Newport Beach, CA 92660

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